THREE RIVERS IN CRISIS, THREE "ENCOURAGING" RIVERNOTES: WORDS HAVE WEIGHT

An improvement from the bottom of the barrel does not constitute a recovery

Between September 3 and 17, 2026, three articles published in RiverNotes presented the results of three Quebec rivers—the Rivière aux Rochers, the Rivière du Gouffre, and the Rivière Sainte-Marguerite—from an encouraging angle.

Three weeks. Three severely weakened rivers. Three positive framings.

Yes, some of the 2026 results are better than those of 2024 or 2025. No one disputes that. But when these figures are placed in the context of historical data, the picture becomes much less reassuring.

A river can experience an annual rise while remaining deeply in crisis.

This is precisely why words must be chosen with extreme care.

The Atlantic Salmon Federation does not exist to please fishermen or to embellish the record of a fishing season.

It exists to protect and restore wild Atlantic salmon.

Its primary responsibility, therefore, is not to find reassuring words. It is to present the true state of the population, even when the truth is difficult to hear.

The overall picture: an improvement does not constitute a recovery

Here's what the 2026 figures actually show when compared to more representative historical references:

• The Rivière aux Rochers has 216 salmon in 2026. This is better than the 141 in 2025, but about 79% below the average from 2005 to 2009.

  
  

• The Gouffre River recorded 93 releases. This is 20 more than in 2025, but 15 fewer than in 2024. Crucially, a release does not necessarily represent a single salmon run or a single salmon.

  
  

• The main Sainte-Marguerite River has 99 salmon. This is better than 2024 and 2025, but about 74% below the 2015-2019 average.

  
  

• The Sainte-Marguerite Northeast has 90 salmon. This is a rebound after two catastrophic years, but about 80% below the average from 2010 to 2014.

  
  

That's the full picture.

Yes, there are occasional increases. No, the data does not allow us to speak of a recovery.

Rivière aux Rochers: 216 salmon, but still far from historical levels

RiverNotes presents the 2026 season as a "better season" and speaks of "encouraging news".

The total number of salmon increased from 141 in 2025 to 216 in 2026. This represents a real increase of 53.2%.

But 216 salmon represent only about 21% of the average from 2005 to 2009 and 22% of that from 2010 to 2014.

In other words, the river remains nearly 79% below some of its most representative historical averages.

The composition of the 2026 upstream migration is also important:

• 137 grilses;

• 79 large salmon;

• 216 salmon in total.

  
  

The number of grilse has improved, but the number of large salmon remains extremely low. An increase in grilse could raise the total number of large salmon without offsetting the weakness of the large spawners.

It should also be noted that in 2023, only 20 grilse were counted. In 2024, there were 53. In 2025, 70. Then 137 in 2026.

This increase is positive, but it does not yet allow us to conclude that the population has recovered or that it is following a sustainable trajectory.

The correct term would therefore be: partial improvement in a population that is still profoundly weakened.

Gouffre River: we're comparing releases into the water, not upstream migrations.

The situation of the Gouffre river raises an even bigger problem.

RiverNotes reports:

• 108 relaunchs in 2024;

• 73 in 2025;

• 93 in 2026.

  
  

The text presents the 2026 result as being "more encouraging".

But encouraging compared to what?

Releasing a salmon is a declared fishing event. It doesn't automatically mean a different salmon. The same fish can theoretically be caught and released more than once.

The number of times the fish are released back into the water also depends on:

• the number of fishing days;

• water conditions;

• flow rate;

• of the temperature;

• the presence of fishermen at the time when salmon are accessible;

• the concentration of fish in certain areas;

• the rate of catch reporting;

• of the possibility of repeated captures.

  
  

In 2024, the 108 releases were recorded during 1,344 fishing days. This represents approximately 0.080 releases per fishing day.

In 2025, the 73 releases were recorded during 920 fishing days. This represents approximately 0.079 releases per fishing day.

The rate is practically identical.

The decrease in the gross number of catches between 2024 and 2025 therefore seems to largely follow the decrease in fishing effort.

For 2026, RiverNotes does not provide the number of fishing days. Therefore, it is impossible to know if the 93 catches actually represent a better salmon population or simply a different fishing effort.

And above all, the official report does not show a continuous series of ascents for the Gouffre after 2021.

The latest published ascensions are sporadic:

• 193 salmon in 2004;

• 218 in 2005;

• 193 in 2007;

• 349 in 2010;

• 527 in 2019;

• at least 613 in 2020;

• 475 in 2021.

  
  

After 2021, refloating cannot replace a true population count.

The most rigorous formulation would have been:

"More fish will be released back into the water than in 2025, but no conclusions can be drawn regarding the evolution of the total population."

It's less spectacular. But it's much more accurate.

Main Sainte-Marguerite: only 76 madeleines in four years

On the main St. Margaret River, RiverNotes reports 99 salmon in 2026:

• 28 madeleines;

• 71 large salmon.

  
  

The result is presented as the best mounting of the last three years.

That's correct if we limit the comparison to 2024, 2025 and 2026.

But this window begins precisely at the heart of the recent collapse.

Here are the numbers of madeleines observed since 2023:

• 2 in 2023;

• 11 in 2024;

• 35 in 2025;

• 28 in 2026.

  
  

That only yields 76 madeleines in four seasons.

For all salmon species, the runs from 2023 to 2026 total 428 individuals:

• 223 in 2023;

• 35 in 2024;

• 71 in 2025;

• 99 in 2026.

  
  

The 99 salmon in 2026 represent an improvement compared to 2024 and 2025, but they remain about 74% below the 2015-2019 average.

We must also take into account an important methodological limitation: the provincial report specifies that, since 2016, the upslope of the main branch is estimated from its relationship with the Northeast branch.

Therefore, any comparison must be accompanied by a clear explanation of the method used.

Sainte-Marguerite Northeast: a partial rebound, not a recovery

The Northeast branch has 90 salmon in 2026:

• 34 grilses;

• 56 large salmon.

  
  

That's better than the 38 salmon in 2024 and the 46 in 2025.

But, once again, the choice of the comparison period completely changes the picture.

The 90 salmon of 2026 represent:

• about 21% of the average from 2000 to 2004;

• about 20% of the average from 2010 to 2014;

• approximately 32% of the average from 2015 to 2019;

• about 53% of the already weakened average from 2020 to 2025.

Even compared to the recent period, which includes the collapses of 2024 and 2025, the 2026 result remains about 47% lower.

The correct word is therefore not "recovery".

The right word is: partial rebound after two catastrophic years.

Salmon cannot be measured solely from one year to the next.

There is another question that should concern us greatly: what will become of the cohorts produced by the small upswings of 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026?

Atlantic salmon do not operate on a simple annual calendar.

After spawning, the eggs overwinter in the gravel. The young salmon then generally live for several years in the river before becoming smolts and migrating downstream to the sea. They then spend one or more winters in the marine environment before returning as adults.

Therefore, the consequences of a low egg deposition in 2023 will not all be visible in 2024.

They can manifest themselves several years later.

That's where the real danger lies.

Some fly bolts in the coming years may still be supported by better egg deposits from previous years. This could give the impression that the situation is stabilizing.

But the very low uptake recorded since 2023 risks producing much smaller adult cohorts in the late 2020s or early 2030s.

We cannot predict with certainty the exact year or the precise extent of this decline.

But we know enough about the biological cycle to understand that we need to prepare before the shock fully appears in the adult climbers.

Are we ready for what's coming?

Have we already implemented:

• a uniform thermal protocol;

• automatic shutdowns when temperature and low flow become dangerous;

• a daily display of temperature, flow rate, fish runs and fishing effort;

• a genuine monitoring of recaptures;

• salmon smolt counts;

• regular monitoring of the parr;

• an annual publication of egg laying;

• Measures to reduce fishing pressure when fish runs become critical?

  
  

Are the fish kept in water constantly?

Are photos taken outside of the water prohibited?

Are barbless hooks, or hooks with a completely crushed barb, mandatory?

Is the duration of the fights reduced to a minimum?

Do we preemptively close a river before the heat, low flow, and handling of fish become a deadly combination?

These are the questions that a conservation organization should place at the center of its message.

Not only that: did we release a few more salmon back into the water than last year?

Words influence behavior

When an organization as well-known as the Atlantic Salmon Federation describes a season as "encouraging," the public takes it that the situation is getting better.

The sense of urgency is diminishing.

Some anglers may believe the river can withstand more pressure. Managers may feel less pressure to impose difficult measures. Decision-makers may conclude that the actions already in place are sufficient.

That is why words have weight.

I am not criticizing the fact of publishing a real increase.

I criticize the fact that the worst years of the series were chosen as the main reference point.

By constantly comparing the worst to the almost worst, we end up making an unacceptable situation seem acceptable.

An annual increase should be presented for what it is: an annual increase.

Recovery requires much more:

• a positive trend over several years;

• a rise that is closer to historical references;

• a good representation of large salmon;

• a sufficient egg deposit;

• adequate production of parr and salmon smolts;

• a population large enough and diverse enough to withstand bad years.

  
  

We are still far from being able to demonstrate all of this on the three rivers studied.

Conclusion: our responsibility lies with the salmon

The Atlantic Salmon Federation is not a fishing season promotion agency.

It is a conservation organization.

Her responsibility is not to tailor her message to what the fishermen want to hear. She must tailor it to what the salmon need to survive.

The fisherman may wish for a better season.

The Federation, for its part, must defend the next generation of salmon.

Yes, let's highlight each additional salmon.

But let's also show how much ground has been lost.

Let's show the historical averages. Let's show the big salmon and the madeleines.

Let's show the fishing effort. Let's show the temperatures, the flow rates, the egg deposits and the salmon smolt counts.

Then let's clearly explain what we are prepared to do to protect those who remain.

It is not our responsibility to make the season encouraging.

Our responsibility is to give salmon every possible chance of survival.

Each breeder must reach spawning time.

Every public statement must reflect this urgency.

Because at the rate some rivers are declining, their days are numbered — and the salmon cannot wait for our vocabulary to catch up with reality.

Sources

[1] Government of Quebec, Ministry of the Environment, the Fight Against Climate Change, Wildlife and Parks. 2025 Salmon Harvest Assessment in Quebec , April 2026. Tables for the Gouffre River, pages 132-133; Sainte-Marguerite Main River, pages 142-143; Sainte-Marguerite Northeast River, pages 144-145; Rivière aux Rochers River, pages 164-165. https://bibliotheque.cecile-rouleau.gouv.qc.ca/documents/archives/pgq/L6G48_B54/L6G48_B54_2025.pdf

[2] Atlantic Salmon Federation. RiverNotes — September 3, 2026 , section on the Rivière aux Rochers. https://www.asf.ca/rivernotes-september-03-2026/

[3] Atlantic Salmon Federation. RiverNotes — September 10, 2026 , section on the Gouffre River. https://www.asf.ca/rivernotes-september-10-2026/

[4] Atlantic Salmon Federation. RiverNotes — September 17, 2026 , section on the Sainte-Marguerite River. https://www.asf.ca/rivernotes-september-17-2026/

[5] Government of Quebec. Regulatory Amendments — Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean Region — Atlantic Salmon Fishery , July 12, 2024. https://www.quebec.ca/nouvelles/actualites/details/modifications-reglementaires-region-du-saguenay-lac-saint-jean-peche-au-saumon-atlantique-reduction-du-contingent-quotidien-de-saumons-remis-a-leau-et-de-petits-saumons-pris-et-gardes-pour-la-saison-2024-57429

[6] Government of Quebec. Atlantic Salmon Management Plan . https://www.quebec.ca/agriculture-environnement-et-ressources-naturelles/faune/gestion-faune-habitats-fauniques/gestion-especes-fauniques/plans-gestion/saumon-atlantique

[7] Atlantic Salmon Federation. About Atlantic Salmon — life cycle of Atlantic salmon. https://www.asf.ca/about-atlantic-salmon/