100, 50… salmon… and still no line. How far are we going to fall?

We are witnessing the worst salmon run in modern Québec history. Not just a dip. Not a cycle. A collapse. The numbers are unequivocal: 11 rivers below 100 salmon, including 7 under 50. At that point, we’re no longer talking about fishing. We’re talking about survival. And meanwhile… nothing. No strong measures. No clear signal. No plan to guarantee something essential: that every salmon returning can spawn.

We keep making marginal adjustments, talking about catch-and-release, publishing, consulting. But we are not acting at the scale of the crisis. And yet, the reality is brutal, mathematical, impossible to ignore. The smolt return rate is below 0.2%. Zero point two. Concretely, that means that out of 1,000 smolts leaving the river, two salmon come back—two.

In this context, every spawner becomes critical. Every salmon that successfully reproduces becomes essential. It’s a simple and unforgiving numbers game. 0.2% of 1,000,000 gives 2,000 returns. 0.2% of 1,000 gives 2 returns. Same rate. Completely different outcome. The entire survival of salmon now depends on how many breeders we manage to protect today. And that’s exactly where the system is failing. We continue to manage as if we were in times of abundance. As if 100 salmon were still an acceptable baseline. As if catch-and-release were a sufficient solution, regardless of context. But in rivers where only 30, 40, or 50 fish remain, every handling, every stress, every mortality—even marginal—becomes disproportionate.

The real question is no longer biological. It’s political. Where is the line? 100 salmon? 50? 40? 30? 20? 10? 0? At what point will the ministry and the Fédération québécoise pour le saumon atlantique decide that enough is enough?

Because right now, everything points to a “run until fail” management approach. We let it decline. We hope for a rebound. We buy time. But in the meantime, every salmon lost is one less chance to reproduce. And with a return rate of 0.2%, those losses cannot be recovered.

We like to talk about the ocean. Greenland. Climate change. Factors beyond our control. All of that is real. But it is not an excuse for inaction here. Because here, in Québec, we do have control. We can close rivers. We can protect thermal refuges. We can impose strict rules. We can ensure that every salmon reaches its spawning grounds. But that takes courage. It means stopping the attempt to please everyone. It means making unpopular but necessary decisions.

Today, the only logical strategy is clear: maximize the reproduction of what remains. Not tomorrow. Now. Because at 0.2%, we no longer have the luxury of waiting. And in trying to find the line… we may already be crossing it.